The current narrative surrounding FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) stock revolves around a few central ideas.
One, the idea that it will rise from President Joseph Biden’s infrastructure bill and the money to be directed toward clean energy. And two, that FCEL stock is a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Let’s start there first.
Early in 2021, clean energy was much more attractive than it currently is. Back then, investors drove the price of FCEL stock up above $27. By April, it had fallen below $10 — it’s still there.
That has led some investors to characterize FCEL stock as a diamond in the rough or a buy-the-dip opportunity.
That might be fine if the analysts covering the stock had a higher opinion of it, but they don’t. Their consensus is that FCEL shares should trade at $7.38 — and there are 10 of those analysts.
Remember, their job is to meticulously study the valuation of a given sector and the firms within it. So, when 10 of them come to a collective conclusion that FCEL stock should trade at $7.38, it should at least pique investors’ interest.
In short, that strongly suggests that FuelCell Energy could move even lower and it also suggests that early 2021 prices were wildly exaggerated. The counter to that assertion is that FuelCell Energy will instead rise because Biden has signed his infrastructure bill. The bull thesis is that FCEL stock in particular will receive some sort of second wind.
That bill includes funding for clean energy. The implication then is that FCEL stock ought to rise since its fuel cell platforms should find more buyers as a result of the bill’s passage
Indeed, FuelCell Energy CEO Jason Few’s description of his firm’s investment in that future energy landscape makes sense:
“We have increased our investment in innovation and are making progress towards the availability of our Advanced Technologies solutions, including distributed hydrogen, long duration energy storage, and hydrogen production via our solid oxide platform. These offerings will complement our commercially available carbonate fuel cell platforms that provide a scalable solution to deliver against the increasing requirements of clean, distributed power and hydrogen generation to strengthen and supplement the grid power and enable the hydrogen economy. The global energy transition continues to accelerate, and we believe FuelCell Energy is positioned to answer these opportunities with our patented portfolio of platform solutions.”
So theoretically, the company should be in a prime position to take advantage of the billions earmarked for related projects, and perhaps it will — but it certainly cannot predict the future. However, the issue I foresee is that the inflow of capital likely won’t reach FuelCell Energy.
Not Strong Financially
The deeper you dig into the company, the more likely you are to realize it isn’t a great firm.
When the company last released earnings figures, it showed weakness. Total revenues were essentially flat, having increased from $53.872 million to $55.65 million year over year.
In the 2020 period, the firm managed to eke out a $320k net gain. However, that turned into a $7.274 million loss for the nine months which ended July 31, 2021.
So, the obvious question becomes why should that capital flow go towards FuelCell Energy as opposed to any number of other similar projects?
I don’t have another suggestion in its place, instead I’m simply asking a rhetorical question. Moreover, that’s how investors must think when bills get passed which are slated to lift entire sectors higher.
What to Do
I can see why investors are eagerly searching to find the right stocks that are bound to rise on Biden’s infrastructure bill. But I can’t see how investors can conclude FCEL stock is among the best choices in that search.
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Alex Sirois is a freelance contributor to InvestorPlace whose personal stock investing style is focused on long-term, buy-and-hold, wealth-building stock picks. Having worked in several industries from e-commerce to translation to education and utilizing his MBA from George Washington University, he brings a diverse set of skills through which he filters his writing.