The Taylor Rule: Calculating Monetary Policy
The Taylor Rule is a model used to forecast interest rates. Created by famed economist John Taylor in 1992, it suggests how the central bank should change interest rates to account for inflation and other economic conditions.According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates when inflation is above target, or when GDP growth is too high. The Fed should lower rates when inflation is below the target level, or when GDP growth is too slow. The Taylor Rule aims to stabilize the economy in the short term, and stabilize inflation over the long term.The Taylor Rule looks like this:i = r* + pi + 0.5 (pi-pi*) = 0.5 (y-y*)Where i is the nominal federal funds rate, r asterisk is the real federal funds rate, pi is the rate of inflation, p asterisk is the target inflation rate, y is a logarithm of real output, and y asterisk is a logarithm of potential output.The Taylor Rule comes up with an interest rate, an inflation rate and a GDP rate that are all based on the one rate that should determine the correct balance for interest rate forecasts.Essentially, the equation says that the difference between a nominal and real interest rate is inflation. Real interest rates account for inflation; nominal rates do not. If, for example, the nominal interest rate on a three-year deposit is 4% and inflation over the three years is 3%, then the real interest rate is 1%.Taylor recommended the real interest rate should be 1.5 times the inflation rate.
Reviewed by Michael J BoyleFact checked by Suzanne KvilhaugReviewed by Michael J BoyleFact checked by Suzanne Kvilhaug
The Taylor Rule is an interest rate formula invented by famed economist John Taylor in 1992 and outlined in his 1993 study, “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice.” It suggests how central banks should change interest rates to account for inflation and other economic conditions.
The Taylor Rule suggests that the Federal Reserve should raise rates when inflation is above target or when gross domestic product (GDP) growth is above potential. It also suggests that the Fed should lower rates when inflation is below the target level or when GDP growth below potential.
Key Takeaways
- The Taylor Rule is a formula that prescribes how central banks should set interest rates, factoring in considerations such as inflation and GDP growth.
- Per the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve should increase interest rates when inflation exceeds targets, or when output growth is too high.
- The opposite is also applies: When inflation falls short of targets or when output growth is below potential, the Taylor Rule urges central policymakers to lower interest rates.
The Taylor Rule Formula
π=Rate of inflationπ∗=Target inflation rateI=R∗+PI+0.5(PI−PI∗)+0.5(Y−Y∗)where:I=Nominal fed funds rateR∗=Real federal funds rate (usually 2%)Y=Logarithm of real outputY∗=Logarithm of potential output
The Taylor Rule Explained
The Taylor Rule is based on three numbers: an interest rate, an inflation rate and a GDP rate, all based on an equilibrium rate to gauge the proper balance for an interest rate forecast by monetary authorities.
This formula suggests that the difference between a nominal interest rate and a real interest rate is inflation. Real interest rates account for inflation while nominal rates do not. To compare rates of inflation, one must look at the factors that drive it.
Since its inception, the Taylor Rule has served not only as a gauge of interest rates, inflation, and output levels, but also as a guide to gauge proper levels of the money supply.
Three Factors That Drive Inflation
Prices and inflation are driven by three factors: the consumer price index (CPI), producer prices, and the employment index. Most nations in the modern day look at CPI as a whole rather than at core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices.
Rising prices mean higher inflation, so Taylor recommended factoring the rate of inflation over one year (or four quarters) for a comprehensive picture.
Taylor also recommended the real interest rate should be 1.5 times the inflation rate. This is based on the assumption of an equilibrium rate that factors the real inflation rate against the expected inflation rate. Taylor called this the equilibrium, a 2% steady state, equal to a rate of about 2%. But that’s only part of the equation—output must be factored in as well.
To properly gauge inflation and price levels, apply a moving average of the various price levels to determine a trend and to smooth out fluctuations. Perform the same functions on a monthly interest rate chart. Follow the fed funds rate to determine trends.
Determining Total Economic Output
The total output of an economy can be determined by productivity, labor force participation, and changes in employment. For the Taylor Rule calculation, we look at real output against potential output.
The Taylor Rule looks at GDP in terms of real and nominal GDP, or what Taylor called actual and trend GDP. It factors in the GDP deflater, which measures prices of all goods produced domestically. We do this by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP and multiplying this figure by 100.
The answer is the figure for real GDP. We are deflating nominal GDP into a true number to fully measure total output of an economy.
When inflation is on target and GDP is growing at its potential, rates are said to be neutral. This model aims to stabilize the economy in the short term and to stabilize inflation over the long term.
The Taylor Rule and Asset Bubbles
Some people thought the central bank was to blame—at least partly—for the housing crisis in 2007-2008. They assert that interest rates were kept too low in the years following the dot-com bubble and leading up to the housing market crash in 2008.
Interest rates that are too low can contribute to asset bubbles. The thinking went, interest rates must be raised to balance inflation and output levels. Another problem linked to asset bubbles is that money supply levels may rise at a pace far higher than what is needed to balance an economy suffering from inflation and output imbalances.
Had the central bank followed the Taylor rule during this time, which indicated the interest rate should be much higher, the bubble may have been smaller, as less people would have been incentivized to buy homes.
What Does the Taylor Rule Predict?
The Taylor Rule predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate—which is the target interest rate it sets for banks to borrow and lend reserves overnight—by half a percentage point for each percentage point that inflation rises relative to its 2% target, or for each percentage point that GDP exceeds its potential. In doing so, the Fed would be engaging in a form of monetary tightening.
Should both inflation and output be exactly on target, the Taylor Rule predicts that the Fed would maintain a federal funds rate of 2%.
When Does the Fed Set Federal Funds Rate?
The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve tasked with the responsibility of determining interest rates and managing the nation’s money supply. The FOMC sets the target federal funds rate eight times a year.
What Is the Federal Funds Rate?
As of May 2024, the target federal funds rate is set at a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. FOMC first established this range in July 2023.
The Bottom Line
The Taylor Rule is a formula developed by economist John Taylor that suggests how central banks should set the federal funds rate. The formula ties target rates to the metrics of inflation and GDP growth.
The Taylor Rule recommends dropping the federal funds rate when GDP growth and inflation fall below expectations, and raising them when GDP growth and inflation exceed them.
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